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 Jerusalem Scenario BuildingFollowing discussions in the Jerusalem-Berlin Forum and reckoning Jerusalem's centrality in the Middle East peace process, a group of 12 Palestinian and Israeli experts from IPCC and the Floersheimer Institute of Israel Studies met for a unique project to find solutions for Jerusalem's future through a constructive and respectful dialogue. As Jerusalem has often been the stumbling point of peace processes and no one has yet to a final status solution for the city, it was first necessary to understand its dynamics within the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and examine how the conflict itself interplays within Jerusalem. This joint endeavor developed by IPCC and the FIPS began in May 2004 and was supported by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. It aimed at two main goals. The first one was indeed to examine the different possible futures for Jerusalem through scenario building going from the worse case scenario to the best. The second aim was to chart a shared vision that transcended the solution horizon and advance several strategies that could enable the two parties to move from the current situation to the desired vision. This vision for Jerusalem is still to be attained and represents an open city of peaceful coexistence, politically divided but physically undivided and serving as the capital of two states in which goods and people can circulate freely. Jerusalem would then be a city of diversity and equality and the universal center of peace and conflict resolution. In order to achieve their aims, a the group of planners, economists and social scientists covered the complex dimensions of the conflict around Jerusalem with its ethno-national, political, economic, social, urban and economic consequences. They thus identified the factors that affect Jerusalem's future on a daily basis and saw how they interact with each other. The experts finally came to the conclusion that five main scenarios could be possible for the future of Jerusalem and developed by the same token strategies to move to the best case scenario and to avoid the worst. The five scenarios were: The scorched earth city The besieged city The bi-national city The hybrid city The city of bridgesInputs to these scenarios were made by German experts during the parallel project of the Jerusalem-Berlin Forum and were also informed by interviews made with decision makers, professionals and community leaders on the Palestinian and Israeli sides. The final research findings were eventually transformed into a publication, Successful Jerusalem: Vision, Scenarios and Strategies. Ultimately, all these scenarios represent guiding principles for a shared vision that will benefit all the populations of Jerusalem if implemented and will impact the whole Middle East peace process. Naturally, the vision calls for a high level of commitment on the part of civil society actors. This is why the research findings are being disseminated and discussed with various stakeholders in the Palestinian and Israeli civil society to make of the best scenario, a reality. |
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